A bitter cup of tea

Tea production fell in 2011 in both Kenya and Uganda, compared with 2010. While two data points do not indicate a trend, crop and climate scientists anticipate drastic reductions in tea production in these two countries in the coming decades. Last year the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (its acronym CIAT derives from the Spanish version of its name) released two important studies: Future climate scenarios for Uganda's tea growing areas and Future climate scenarios for Kenya's tea growing areas, both predicting significant falls in production and export earnings from the crop in these two countries.

Kenya's tea producing zone will shift 500m up in elevation by 2050; lower elevation production areas will see severe drops in suitability for production. A shift in elevation will put forests and protected areas at risk of conversion and will leave many producers in lower elevations in need of new sources of livelihoods.

Impacts are predicted to be even more severe in Uganda: "The report reveals that tea will become increasingly less suited to conditions in Uganda, posing a serious threat to the livelihoods of Uganda’s many smallholder producers and their families."